By Bill Darcy, NKBA CEO

“The future ain’t what it used to be.”

That famous gem, uttered decades ago by the immortal Yogi Berra, could not be more appropriate for today’s unsettled world. The current health crisis and other turmoil enveloping different aspects of our lives have created an aura of uncertainty, disruption and, frankly,  fatigue.

No one knows what’s ahead. The COVID-19 virus completely changed our world in just five months — most of us could not have imagined the magnitude of the change, nor can anyone predict where we’ll be five months from now, or how much the world could potentially change again.

Yet we must keep our eyes and focus on the future, because that’s where the hope is. I know I am hopeful for a number of reasons, especially about the future of our industry. In the past half-year, those of us who have been fortunate enough to work from home have been doing so, and in the process have noticed quite a lot about our homes that need updating, if not outright repair or replacement. Our industry provides that essential service. This is borne out in our most recent NKBA Kitchen & Bath Market Index, which reported improved ratings from the first quarter to the second quarter among all four member segments polled: designers, builders, manufacturers and retailers. It’s true that some measures show contraction — for instance, 2020 sales are projected to be down 4.4% from 2019 — but even that is a big improvement over first-quarter projections for a drop of nearly 14%.

In a hybrid environment, where digital components enhance the live event, we’ll also have to learn the virtues of virtual — and if face-to-face contact ultimately is not practical, we have to adapt and conduct business in the best possible way.

Another positive note is the outlook for future conditions, which has turned optimistic. That projection has leapt to an overall rating of 61.9 (on a scale of 1 to 100) — up from a dismal 19.8 in the first quarter, and a solid improvement over the 31.3 rating for current Q2 conditions. Builders are the most optimistic among the four groups, with two-thirds reporting jobs are back on schedule and rating their Q3 expectations the highest, at 69.1.

Companies across the four industry segments report strengthening demand-side fundamentals, even though the supply side is still an issue. But most firms are learning to adapt to the challenges, shifting their sourcing strategies so they can meet their customers’ needs. And in another sign of improving conditions, residential construction employment rose by 83,200 jobs in June, after adding 224,200 jobs in May.

These are all fairly current indicators, or looking at the short-term future. But I also have high hopes for the longer term. In this issue, we report on our Student Design Competition for the 2019-2020 school year, and the winning entries are quite impressive. We received about 200 submissions, and according to our judges — Danielle Burger, CMKBD; Mark Haddad, CMKBD, and Mac Dodge Junker, CKBD — the caliber of drawings and creativity was exceptional. And, as necessitated by restrictions on travel and gathering caused by the pandemic, everything took place digitally this year, from submissions to judging.

These aspiring designers demonstrated technical acumen, creative expression and an awareness of innovations in the marketplace. The winners also displayed an understanding of their fictional clients’ preferences, needs and wish lists, as well as the problems they faced, and they proposed imaginative yet practical solutions to complete their projects.

The competition shows, however, that now more than ever, it’s about more than a good kitchen or bath drawing. It’s about anticipating issues and finding creative solutions to proactively solve them, through design, technology or using other tools. These students will herald a whole new era in the way kitchens and baths are designed. They show how the future is about adapting to changing conditions, and using new tools to work.

This holds true for KBIS, too. In a hybrid environment, where digital components enhance the live event, we’ll also have to learn the virtues of virtual — and if face-to-face contact ultimately is not practical, we have to adapt and conduct business in the best possible way.

We’ve learned a lot in the past half-year, and while there’s still a lot of uncertainty, one thing’s for sure: the future is changing at a faster pace than anyone could have anticipated. We have to be prepared to change with it.