By Manuel Gutierrez, Consulting Economist to NKBA
- The average single-family home size is 2,480 square feet.
- Seven of nine regional divisions registered declines for 2020.
- Mid-Atlantic area continues to build the largest homes.
The average single-family house built in 2020 was 2,480 square feet, down 29 square feet from 2019, and 207 square feet smaller than new houses built in 2015 — when new homes peaked in size.
Although average new houses were smaller last year, there were clear regional differences. Two of the nine U.S. divisions built bigger houses in 2020 than the prior year. Houses in the Mid-Atlantic, which comprises New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, were 188 square feet larger. The other division is the East South-Central (Tennessee, Kentucky, Mississippi and Alabama), where new houses built in 2020 were 147 square feet larger.
Historically, the biggest new houses by far are built in the Mid-Atlantic states. Last year, on average they measured 2,934 square feet — 454 square feet bigger than the U.S. average (Figure 1).
At the other end of the spectrum, the smallest new houses are built in the West North Central. They average 2,278 square feet, 202 square feet smaller than the national norm.
Although the trend is unlikely to be consistent, in general single-family homes of the future will be built smaller than those of today.
The average size of new homes for five of the U.S. divisions is within ±2% of the national average. They are the South Atlantic, Mountain, and a good part of the nation’s midsection: East North Central, East South Central and West North Central.
Figure 2 shows the last decade’s trend in house sizes at the division level. Among the nine divisions, only the Mid-Atlantic has been built larger nearly every year, despite a slip in 2019.
The average house built last year in the Mid-Atlantic states is 189 square feet larger than the 2,745 square-foot home built in 2009.
New houses built in six other divisions are also larger today than a decade ago. They are the four central divisions as well as the Mountain Division.
The average house in the South Atlantic, Pacific and New England Divisions is smaller today than it was in 2009.
However, regardless of the gain in size compared to 2009, virtually all the divisions reached a peak between 2014 and 2016, only to see a reduction in size since. This is readily apparent in the charts in Figure 2, where a parabola-like pattern of rising is noticeable for a few years, reaching a peak around 2014-2015, then falling.
These trends in home sizes suggest that even though we may see an increase for some, if not all, divisions this year, those increases are likely to be temporary. The general trend is for new single-family homes to become smaller in the future.
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